Congressional Gains May Be Smaller If Dems Are Right

The recent spate of Democrats deciding to retire or otherwise not run for reelection is likely a response to the writing on the wall that has been clear since the Scott Brown victory. There is ample reason for many Dems to fear for their viability for reelection. The question is what are the actual sentiments that are written on this wall?

Recent comments from many bloggers on the right indicate a belief that the voters are expressing dissatisfaction with this Administration and this Congress. This is almost definitely true, and many polls bear this out. Many on the left are claiming that the problem for Dems is that they were not left enough, and that the people are throwing them out as more of an exercise in anti-incumbency. Let’s hope that the solution that the Democrat Party attempts is finding candidates that are even farther left than the current office holders. That would be akin to drilling holes in the bottom of their sinking boat to let the water out.

The anti-incumbency argument does carry some weight, and the RNC and State Republican Party chairs should be talking to as many voters as possible, right, center, and left. It is important to understand where these voters stand, and why they vote the way they do.

It is likely that voters on the Right are feeling some fairly strong feelings of “throw the bums out” even more so than usual. This could lead to some hard times for some centrist Republican candidates, and deservedly so. It is my sincere hope that John McCain is forced to retire from his seat, and is replaced with a Conservative Republican candidate. There is little chance that this group will support a Democrat in general elections, unless that candidate has some limited government chops.

I believe that it is possible that there are even some far left Liberal Democrats (I apologize for the redundancy) that will vote against a Democrat in general elections to send a message, but they won’t switch their vote to Republican if they can find a Socialist, Green, or Communist Party candidate.

The block in question is really those that consider themselves Independent, and actually vote that way. Clearly these voters believe that change is needed, but what exactly are they thinking? If this group is engaging in anti-incumbent based voting, Republican candidates will be no safer than Democrats. If the Dems are right on that score, dumping incumbents is good strategy. Replacing the current office-holder with a fresh, but not unknown, face may pay off, and assumptions by the Right that these seats are ours for the taking would be a big mistake.

If the theory of incumbent anger holds up under scrutiny, the Right needs to be prepared to run the right kinds of campaigns, focusing on what is wrong in Washington. The Right must clearly explain why limited government, free market, and Conservative principles are the way to correct the problem. Most importantly, we must find and cultivate candidates that will actually live these ideals.

If the Right fails to recognize the danger, we may have to be prepared for much smaller gains in Congress than many are predicting, and a much harder fight to keep our freedoms intact.

Satire V

This entry was posted on 16. February 2010 at 13:08 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.

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